The appearance of a nova in the sky was predicted for sometime in 2024, but the year is coming to an end and there is no news of it.
Since the beginning of the year, astronomy enthusiasts have been closely watching the sky in search of a new extremely bright object: a ‘nova’ in the binary system T Coronae Borealis is set to light up the sky. NASA reported that the phenomenon occurs approximately every 80 years. 2024 was to be the year when it would shine again. The space agency even provided a date range: between February and September.
We have now reached the last month of NASA’s estimation and there is still no trace of the nova T Coronae Borealis . People have lost their excitement, although astronomers are neither disappointed nor surprised by the inaccuracy. Due to the extensive periodicity of this nuclear reaction, there have been very few opportunities to study it in depth . So far, it is known for certain where it will appear, but the exact moment of its appearance could be off by up to 20 years.
Ed Murphy, professor of astronomy at the University of Virginia, USA, spoke about the famous prediction of T Coronae Borealis. His statement is one of the first about the absence of the expected phenomenon. In a special article on the university website, he delved into the nature of the most famous nova of recent years and the details that lead to the belief that it will soon appear.
The “brightening and dimming” cycle of T Coronae Borealis
Officially, there have been two recorded nova explosions: in 1866 and 1946. In the 19th century, instruments were barely able to identify the event as a disturbance in the stars. In the 20th century, with more advanced technology, details of the phenomenon were recorded. The most significant of these was a dimming of light in the system one year before the explosion.
In 2023, the binary star system showed a similar dimming to that seen in 1945. Although only 78 years had passed since the last nova, some astronomers estimated that T Coronae Borealis was preparing for the next nuclear explosion. Strong evidence for the brightness was presented, but the investigations were based almost entirely on the 1946 nova.
“ We’ve only seen that happen once in the star’s lifetime, and we don’t know if it’s related to it going nova. Nobody has, to my mind, produced a plausible mechanism to explain why it would get dimmer before going nova. So I’m not convinced that this is really predicting an imminent nova,” Murphy explained.
“There are 80 years between those appearances , so people were predicting it would go off soon. I think this is very suspicious for a couple of reasons. We’ve only seen it go off twice before and just because the interval was 80 years doesn’t mean it’s going to run like clockwork and go off every 80 years . It could be the kind of thing that sometimes takes 70 years and sometimes takes 100,” he continued.
There is one certainty in the sea of uncertainty surrounding the nova. When it appears in the sky, everyone will notice because it will have a brightness similar to the star Polaris, the brightest of all those that can be seen from Earth. The next time T Coronae Borealis shines (it could take 20 more years), astronomers will have the right tools to refine their predictions.
